4.04.07 - Risk analysis



Socio-Ecological Conflicts in Forest Management: Risks of (Not) Adapting?

Nancy, France; postponed to June 2022!

This international conference will focus on the potential conflicts emanating from the divergences in terms of expectations towards the forest, from various actors. In particular, society's expectations can sometimes be in conflict with forest expectations in terms of ecology or economy. Thus, public access to a forest can be facilitated (construction of access roads, recreational areas, etc.) to the detriment of the preservation of biodiversity. However, expectations can also converge. Thus, society is more and more inclined to use wood material and this is in line with the economic expectations that weigh on the forestry sector. The interests can thus be convergent or divergent between the various actors of the society, and that is why to approach this topic within the conference seems to us interesting. The risks associated with conflict situations can generate inertia and "non-action", which is undesirable in a context of climate change. Indeed, forests have a role to play in terms of mitigation and for this they must adapt. These conflicts could then generate "non-adaptation" or "bad adaptation", which would be harmful. This multi-disciplinary theme should lead to interesting and varied presentations.

Details available fromhttps://workshop.inrae.fr/iufro-risk-analysis-nancy/  

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Rasoul Yousefpour, Germany


Marielle Brunette, France

Jan Kaspar, Czech Republic

Teodora Minkova, United States

About Unit

Risk is defined as the expected probability of an event occurring multiplied by the consequences of the event given its occurrence. Risk analysis is broadly defined to include the scientific estimation of risk and its management. Within the context of the forest resource, risk analysis can be applied to issues of invasive pests (insects and pathogens), natural disturbances, forest management planning, biodiversity conservation, and others. As a framework, risk analysis is well suited to addressing demands for the maximization of multiple, and often conflicting, forest values while simultaneously incorporating uncertainty in the estimation of risk.

Thus, risk analysis is a methodology/framework that can be applied to a diverse collection of forest resource issues of an ecological, economic and social nature. Techniques within the risk analysis framework that incorporate empirical and theoretical research results include simulation modelling, development of knowledge-based systems, neural networks, and more. The application of risk analysis frameworks will be of interest to a multi-disciplinary group of forest researchers and policy makers.

The Risk Analysis Unit was formed in April, 2011.

State of Knowledge

The Risk Analysis working party will bring together individuals with diverse research interests in forestry in order to share techniques of risk analysis. As a working party that will focus less on a specific biological issue, and more on a widely applicable methodology, it will foster unique cross-disciplinary co-operation as it contributes to the IUFRO mission of "[disseminating] knowledge to stakeholders and decision makers and [contributing] to forest policy and on-the-ground forest management".